전 세계 각국에서 약 6천개의 견착식  지대공  미사일이 분실됐으며 이 가운데 4천개는 이라크에서 없어진 것이라고 미국 신문 뉴욕타임스가 6일 밝혔다.

이 신문은 '익명의 관리들'의 말을 인용해 이렇게 밝히면서 이는  종전  견착식 미사일 분실 통계치의 3배에 이르는 것이라고 덧붙였다.

견착식 미사일 분실에 대한 새로운 통계는 최근 국방정보국(DIA) 주최로 앨라배마에서 열린 '휴대용 미사일에 의한 민간 항공기 위협' 주제의 비공개 회의에서  나온 것이라고 이 신문은 보도했다.

또 이런 새로운 통계는 이라크 저항세력들이 약 4천∼5천개의 견착식  미사일을 보유하고 있을지 모른다는 미 의회조사국(CRS)의 예측과 일치한다.

그동안 서방국 정보기관들과 안보 관계자들은 2002년 케냐 수도 몸바사  공항에서 이스라엘 여객기를 겨냥한 미사일 공격을 예시하며 알-카에다 요원들이 민간  항공기를 공격할 수 있다고 경고해왔다. 

 

아래는 뉴욕타임스 보도 전문이다. (konas)

U.S. Expands List of Lost Missiles

By DOUGLAS JEHL and DAVID E. SANGER

Published: November 6, 2004

ASHINGTON, Nov. 5 - American intelligence agencies have tripled their formal estimate of shoulder-fired surface-to-air missile systems believed to be at large worldwide, since determining that at least 4,000 of the weapons in Iraq's prewar arsenals cannot be accounted for, government officials said Friday.

A new government estimate says a total of 6,000 of the weapons may be outside the control of any government, up from a previous estimate of 2,000, American officials said.

The officials said they did not know whether missiles from Iraq remain there or have been smuggled into other countries, though a senior administration official said Friday that "there is no evidence that they have left the country.''

It was unclear whether Iraqi military or intelligence personnel removed the missile systems during the initial invasion of Iraq or whether they disappeared from warehouses after major combat ended.

Shoulder-fired missiles - which are small, lethal and easy to use - are attractive weapons for terrorists. In recent months, Western intelligence and law enforcement agencies have repeatedly warned that Al Qaeda intends to use them to shoot down planes. In 2002, attackers who launched two small Russian-made SA-7 missiles almost hit a commercial aircraft taking off from Mombasa, Kenya. The new estimate of a larger number of the missile systems was discussed at a classified Defense Intelligence Agency conference in Alabama this week, the officials said. They declined to discuss the methods by which the new estimate had been reached, saying that it was classified.

American intelligence analysts have said in the past that during Saddam Hussein's rule, Iraq stockpiled at least 5,000 of these missile systems, and that fewer than a third had been recovered. The shelf life of the missiles can vary, with battery life depending on the conditions under which they are stored.

Secretary of State Colin L. Powell said last fall that "no threat is more serious to aviation" than the shoulder-fired missiles, which can be bought on the black market for as little as $5,000, are about five feet long and weigh as little as 35 pounds. More than 40 aircraft have been struck by shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles since the 1970's, causing at least 24 crashes and more than 600 deaths worldwide, according to a State Department estimate. In Iraq, the missiles have been used in more than a dozen attacks on American planes and helicopters, including those taking off and landing at Baghdad's international airport.

In recent months, the number of successful missile attacks on American aircraft and helicopters in Iraq has declined, but American officials have said the reason has largely been the precautionary measures taken by the United States military.

An unclassified study released in June 2004 by what is now the Government Accountability Office cited "U.S. government estimates" that a few thousand of the portable missiles were "outside government controls.'' A separate study released in November 2003 by the Congressional Research Service cited counterterrorism experts in saying that as many as 4,000 to 5,000 shoulder-fired missiles might be available to Iraqi insurgents.

The new estimate by American intelligence agencies was described by government officials who had access to the classified intelligence report. They said the tripling of the number represented the first formal effort to determine how unaccounted Iraqi stockpiles may have compounded the surface-to-air missile threat. Only several hundred shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles from the Iraqi arsenals have been turned in to American forces in a buyout program, the government officials said.

A Defense Department official said Friday that more than one million shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles had been produced since the weapons were first manufactured in the 1950's, with 20 countries producing more than 35 different types of weapons. According to the accountability office study, 500,000 to 750,000 shoulder-fired surface-to-air missiles are still believed to be in the worldwide inventory. Many of the older missiles are militarily obsolete and have been destroyed.